State Fiscal Forecast Predicts Tight FY25

By Benjamin Cox on March 13, 2024 at 1:35pm

A new state fiscal forecast predicts firm but slowing growth in the state’s economy for the upcoming fiscal year.

Capitol News Illinois reports the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s latest update tracks closely with the governor’s budget proposal. Both estimates projected a surplus of almost $2 billion dollars for the current year before things tighten in fiscal year 2025.

Eric Noggle is the Revenue Manager for COGFA and gave lawmakers an overview of the state’s income in a meeting yesterday: “So in summary, things are looking good for fiscal year 24. Fiscal year 25 will be a little bit of a challenge, as I mentioned before, bottom line is that we are well below the governor’s office by nine-hundred and sixteen million in our twenty-five outlook, but when you take out those one time revenues we are actually a hundred and two million dollars higher. So pretty much the same estimate.

Noggle’s picture was somewhat dimmed by House Republicans, who held a press conference after the meeting saying that the state is being over-regulated and over-taxed, causing growth to slow down.

Citing a recent report from Moody’s, COGFA co-chair State Representative C.D. Davidsmeyer of Murrayville says that more taxes are on the way with the Governor’s budget proposals: “They specifically came in almost a billion dollars lower than what the governor came in with because the governor’s proposing almost $1.1 billion of additional new taxes, over $900 million of which are directly on businesses. These taxes are on machinery-rich businesses – and when I say rich I mean they have to put in a lot of dollar investments for this type of thing. We’re asking these businesses to pay more because we are overwhelmed by things like the illegal immigrant crisis in Chicago right? Being a sanctuary state and a sanctuary city has had a huge impact on the State of Illinois. The last couple of years we have spent almost $2 billion on free services for individuals who are not Illinoisans while we leave other Illinoisans behind, whether it’s senior citizens, whether it’s programs for the developmentally disabled. So, we have to do better for the State of Illinois. We have to do better for our businesses and ensure that they have the opportunity to grow and to hire.”

Davidsmeyer specifically pointed to the slowing of the state’s economy in the jobs market: “As we look at our employment numbers, just over the past couple of months, we have seen private employment go down by almost 40,000 and government employment go up by almost 40,000. We need to look at this trend and we need to flip it around because when government is spending more and businesses are cutting back, the numbers just don’t work.”

Other COGFA officials tempered any fears of a national recession through projections from S&P Global, saying that the state has accounted for slower growth next year as noted in a dial back of revenues in fiscal year 2025.

Lawmakers are expected to vote on a budget plan by the end of the ILGA session on May 31st.