Residents across West Central Illinois should be keeping a close eye on the sky this afternoon as conditions become favorable for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes.
According to the National Weather Service office in Lincoln, an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather has been issued for much of Central Illinois, including Morgan, Scott, Greene, and Cass counties.
Forecasters say two rounds of storms are possible, beginning this afternoon.
The first round could develop between 3 and 7 p.m. along and north of a warm front expected to set up somewhere across Central Illinois. Any storms that form in that environment could quickly intensify. Meteorologists say the atmosphere may support strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging wind gusts with these early cells.
A second round of storms is expected later tonight into the overnight hours, when a larger line of thunderstorms may sweep through the region. While damaging winds are expected to be the main threat with that round, an isolated tornado and pockets of flash flooding cannot be ruled out.
Weather experts say where the warm front ultimately stalls will be the key factor in determining the greatest tornado risk. Areas south of the boundary are typically more favorable for tornado development, while areas north of the front tend to see stronger hail-producing storms.
Storms are expected to move quickly once they develop, with projected motion toward the east-northeast at around 50 miles per hour.
Local officials are already monitoring the situation. Jacksonville School District 117 Superintendent Steve Ptacek said in an email to parents at midday that he is considering a two-hour delayed start Wednesday morning due to the potential of the storms.
Ptacek said overnight storms combined with the recent daylight saving time change could create hazardous conditions for morning bus routes, especially if downed trees, debris, or power lines are present before sunrise. A final decision on the delay is expected later today after additional forecast updates.
Meteorologists say not everyone will see severe weather, but any location across Central Illinois could experience rapidly developing storms if temperatures warm and the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon.
Officials recommend residents have multiple ways to receive weather warnings, review their severe weather safety plans, and stay alert through the evening hours.
Spotter activation may also be needed later today as conditions develop. Stay tuned to WLDS-WEAI for all of your weather-related announcements.